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PRMIA Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate Exam Sample Questions (Q70-Q75):
NEW QUESTION # 70
Which of the following is closest to the description of a 'risk functional'?
Answer: B
Explanation:
For operational risk modeling, both frequency and severity distributions need to be modeled. Modeling severity involves finding an analytical distribution, such as log-normal or other that approximates the distribution best represented by known data - whether from the internal loss database, the external loss database or scenario data. A 'risk functional' is a measure of the deviation of the model distribution from the risk's actual severity distribution. It assigns a penalty value for the deviation, using a statistical measure, such as the KS distance (Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance).
The problem of finding the right distribution then becomes the problem of optimizing the risk functional. For example, if F is the model distribution, and G is the actual, or empirical severity distribution, and we are using the KS test, then the Risk Functional R is defined as follows:
A diagram of a function Description automatically generated with medium confidence
Note that supx stands for 'supremum', which is a more technical way of saying 'maximum'. In other words, we are calculating the maximum absolute KS distance between the two distributions. (Note that the KS distance is the max of the distance between identical percentiles of the two distributions using the CDFs of the two.) Once the risk functional is identified, we can minimize it to determine the best fitting distribution for severity.
NEW QUESTION # 71
Which of the following is not a limitation of the univariate Gaussian model to capture the codependence structure between risk factros used for VaR calculations?
Answer: D
Explanation:
In the univariate Gaussian model, each risk factor is modeled separately independent of the others, and the dependence between the risk factors is captured by the covariance matrix (or its equivalent combination of the correlation matrix and the variance matrix). Risk factors could include interest rates of different tenors, different equity market levels etc.
While this is a simple enough model, it has a number of limitations.
First, it fails to fit to the empirical distributions of risk factors, notably their fat tails and skewness. Second, a single covariance matrix is insufficient to describe the fine codependence structure among risk factors as non- linear dependencies or tail correlations are not captured. Third, determining the covariance matrix becomes an extremely difficult task as the number of risk factors increases. The number of covariances increases by the square of the number of variables.
But an inability to capture linear relationships between the factors is not one of the limitations of the univariate Gaussian approach - in fact it is able to do that quite nicely with covariances.
A way to address these limitations is to consider joint distributions of the risk factors that capture the dynamic relationships between the risk factors, and that correlation is not a static number across an entire range of outcomes, but the risk factors can behave differently with each other at different intersection points.
NEW QUESTION # 72
According to the Basel II standard, which of the following conditions must be satisfied before a bank can use
'mark-to-model' for securities in its trading book?
I. Marking-to-market is not possible
II. Market inputs for the model should be sourced in line with market prices III. The model should have been created by the front office IV. The model should be subject to periodic review to determine the accuracy of its performance
Answer: D
Explanation:
According to Basel II, where marking-to-market is not possible, banks may mark-to-model, where this can be demonstrated to be prudent. Marking-to-model is defined as any valuation which has to be benchmarked, extrapolated or otherwise calculated from a market input. When marking to model, an extra degree of conservatism is appropriate. Supervisory authorities will consider thefollowing in assessing whether a mark- to-model valuation is prudent:
* Senior management should be aware of the elements of the trading book which are subject to mark to model and should understand the materiality of the uncertainty this creates in the reporting of the risk/performance of the business.
* Market inputs should be sourced, to the extent possible, in line with market prices. The appropriateness of the market inputs for the particular position being valued should be reviewed regularly.
* Where available, generally accepted valuation methodologies for particular products should be used as far as possible.
* Where the model is developed by the institution itself, it should be based on appropriate assumptions, which have been assessed and challenged by suitably qualified parties independent of the development process. The model should be developed or approved independently of the front office. It should be independently tested.
This includes validating the mathematics, the assumptions and the software implementation.
* There should be formal change control procedures in place and a secure copy of the model should be held and periodically used to check valuations.
* Risk management should be aware of the weaknesses of the models used and how best to reflect those in the valuation output.
* The model should be subject to periodic review to determine the accuracy of its performance (e.g. assessing continued appropriateness of the assumptions, analysis of P&L versus risk factors, comparison of actual close out values to model outputs).
* Valuation adjustments should be made as appropriate, for example, to cover the uncertainty of the model valuation.
The model should be created independent of the front office, and not by it. Therefore statement III does not represent an appropriate choice. Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 73
When compared to a high severity low frequency risk, the operational risk capital requirement for a low severity high frequency risk is likely to be:
Answer: D
Explanation:
High frequency and low severity risks, for example the risks of fraud losses for a credit card issuer, may have high expected losses, but low unexpected losses. In other words, we can generally expect these losses to stay within a small expected and known range. The capital requirement will be the worst case losses at a given confidence level less expected losses, and in such cases this can be expected to be low.
On the other hand, medium severity medium frequency risks, such as the risks of unexpected legal claims, 'fat- finger' trading errors, will have low expected losses but a high level of unexpected losses. Thus the capital requirement for such risks will be high.
It is also worthwhile mentioning high severity and low frequency risks - for example a rogue trader circumventing all controls and bringing the bank down, or a terrorist strike or natural disaster creating other losses - will probably have zero expected losses & high unexpected losses but only at very high levels of confidence. In other words, operational risk capital is unlikely to provide for such events and these would lie in the part of the tail that is not covered by most levels of confidence when calculating operational risk capital.
Note that risk capital is required for only unexpected losses as expected losses are to be borne by P&L reserves. Therefore the operational risk capital requirements for a low severity high frequency risk is likely to be low when compared to other risks that are lower frequency but higher severity.
Thus Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 74
Which of the following statements is true?
Answer: C
Explanation:
Deterioration in the balance sheets of key counterparties is a concern for a liquidity manager even though it may not immediately affect a firm, and this is true because counterparty failures may lead to liquidity shortfalls for an institution for no fault of its own. It is important for a liquidity risk manager to watch the health of key counterparties where exposure is concentrated and take timely steps to reduce it should the health deteriorate.
Under times of liquidity stress, prepayments of loans extended will decline while withdrawals of demand deposits are likely to increase. Both will not decrease, and therefore Choice 'b' is incorrect.
A bank is exposed to the undrawn portions of a line of credit extended to a borrower as the borrower, with superior information on its own finances, is likely to draw upon undrawn lines of credit thereby increasing the bank's exposure. Therefore Choice 'a' is incorrect. Generally, a portion of the undrawn part is counted towards a liquidity outflow.
Longevity risk is the risk facing sellers of annuities that their clients will outlive their assumptions on their length of life, while mortality risk is the downside risk for an insurer that clients will die sooner than expected causing the reserves to fall short of what is needed. Therefore Choice 'd' is not correct as the opposite is true.
NEW QUESTION # 75
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